The Minnesota Chamber Foundation recently released its 2026 Business Benchmarks report, offering a snapshot of how Minnesota’s economy is performing. In many places, we agree with their assessment. Minnesota’s economy is at a crossroads, and it’s essential that policymakers, businesses, and the public understand the forces shaping our economic future.

But the Chamber’s report presents only a partial picture of the challenges and opportunities ahead for Minnesota businesses. Two omissions in particular stand out: the impact of the Trump administration’s tariffs on the economy and the critical role of a changing immigration landscape in Minnesota’s workforce. In addition, the Chamber’s report focuses almost exclusively on trends, overlooking the importance of Minnesota’s position relative to other states. These gaps create an analysis that does not fully match the realities facing the state’s businesses or workers.

Concern 1: Tariffs and Immigration are the Elephants in the Room

Tariffs: A Major Business Concern the Report Ignores

​The Chamber frames Minnesota as facing economic headwinds. On that point, we agree. But remarkably, in a ten-page analysis of Minnesota’s business climate, the Chamber never mentions tariffs, even though businesses across the state and country identify tariffs as one of their top concerns.

​This omission is especially striking given that today’s tariff pressures are being driven by the historic tariff expansions implemented by the Trump administration, which have reshaped supply chains, raised input costs, and introduced new uncertainty for Minnesota employers. These tariffs are not abstract national policy choices; they are direct, material factors affecting costs and hiring decisions across the state.

​Nationally, the data is unequivocal:

• 89% of U.S. CEOs say tariffs will impact business performance.
• 40% of businesses report that tariffs have led to hiring freezes or declines.
• 67% of small businesses say tariffs have raised their costs.

And here in Minnesota, the picture is even clearer:

• Reports from the US Chamber of Commerce itself have specifically highlighted Minnesota businesses, explaining that tariffs have led to them going under.
• 60% of tourism and hospitality businesses in the state say tariffs have negatively affected their business.
• An Enterprise MN survey found that tariffs are a top-three challenge for Minnesota businesses, ahead of the “unfavorable business climate” narrative emphasized in the Chamber’s report.

​To understand Minnesota’s economic conditions, we must consider the factors that businesses themselves say matter most. The Trump administration’s tariffs that are now in place, and their direct impact on Minnesota employers, must be part of any credible analysis.

Immigration is a Workforce Reality

The Chamber prominently notes that Minnesota faces a net domestic migration loss. In a subsection, they further point out that international immigration has offset much of that decline, helping preserve the state’s workforce.

​Although immigrants make up about 1 in 12 Minnesota residents, they comprise 1 in 9 workers, a disproportionate share of the labor force.

Yet this stabilizing force may weaken due to the current national immigration crackdown threatening industries that rely heavily on immigrant workers.

Immigrant workers in Minnesota construction, health, and child care are already sounding the alarm, warning that stepped-up enforcement is driving people out of the workforce and out of the state. The Chamber highlights concerns about rising housing and child-care costs but fails to acknowledge the obvious: those costs will not improve if we continue to push out the very people who build homes, care for children, and produce food.

No business climate analysis is complete without recognizing the economic importance of a stable immigrant workforce.

​Moreover, to the extent that Minnesota wants to keep more families here, policies like Paid Family Medical Leave will help, rather than serving as the burden the Chamber wants to make them out to be. If Minnesota wants to combat concerns with declining populations, it should continue to invest in family-supporting policies and will need to see the end of the Trump administration’s campaign of terror against immigrants.

Concern 2: Understanding Both Trends and Levels

A second issue in the Business Benchmarks report is its tendency to evaluate Minnesota exclusively through trendlines, examining current conditions compared to previous years. Absent from this analysis  is a consideration of levels, or how Minnesota compares to other states.

Both matter. A slow-growing tall person is still taller than a fast-growing toddler.

Take labor force participation. The Chamber notes that Minnesota’s rate has flattened but fails to mention that Minnesota has the second-highest prime-age labor force participation rate in the country. With 90% of Minnesotans aged 25–54 already in the workforce, there is simply less room for improvement.

A full picture requires both metrics, not one. For an example of how to do this, the Chamber might consult our State of Working Minnesota report, which integrates trends and levels to accurately depict the state’s economic standing (see page 11 for labor force participation stats).

Conclusion: We Need a Complete Economic Analysis that Meets the Moment

We agree with the Chamber that Minnesota does face real economic headwinds. But we cannot build a stronger economy if we refuse to confront the full set of forces shaping it, including the Trump administration tariffs driving up costs for Minnesota businesses and the cruel, destabilizing immigration crackdowns that are pushing out the very workers our economy relies on.

We need an economic analysis that is complete, honest, and aligned with what employers and workers are actually experiencing. Because at the end of the day, this isn’t just about business competitiveness, it’s about the workers and families who power Minnesota’s economy. We must choose policies that help them thrive.