Executive Summary

At the end of April, the federal government effectively halted the development of more than 250 onshore wind energy projects across the United States by failing to complete routine national security reviews. These projects, capable of producing 30 gigawatts of electricity, have been left in limbo with no clear end in sight.

This research brief examines the impact of this federal pause on the state of Minnesota. We find:

• Four of these stalled projects will directly impact Minnesota. 
• Pausing these projects puts 1,200 construction jobs at risk. When indirect and induced employment is included, the total number of potentially lost jobs in Minnesota reaches 4,400.
• These construction jobs alone would generate approximately $120 million in wages and benefits for workers. 
• Applying standard multipliers, these wages would create more than $168 million in economic impact for Minnesota communities.
• Workers and their employers would contribute more than $28 million in tax revenue.
• Taken together, these four projects account for $1.6 billion in total investments that could be lost.
• Beyond the immediate economic costs, these four projects would collectively generate 1,119 megawatts of clean electricity, enough to power more than 300,000 Minnesota homes. 
• The clean energy they would produce is estimated to offset 3 million metric tons of carbon dioxide annually, representing $657 million in social savings. 

In past work, North Star Policy Action has advocated for streamlining our state’s permitting process to ensure the state government does not stand in the way of clean energy projects getting built in Minnesota. We have been pleased by the steps state leaders have taken to address these issues. Unfortunately, the federal government is moving us backwards under the current pause by tying up these wind projects in unnecessary red tape. The result is real and measurable damage to Minnesota’s economy, workforce, and clean energy future.

Wind Energy in Minnesota

Wind energy has become the backbone of the Minnesota’s electricity supply. Since 2001, wind energy production in the state has increased sixteenfold, making wind the largest source of electricity in the state.

That growth has directly translated into jobs. Constructing this amount of wind energy has led to hundreds of thousands of jobs, with thousands of Minnesotans currently working in the wind energy industry. Due to their location, wind farms have been a particularly reliable economic engine for rural Minnesota, generating over $90 million dollars in tax revenue for rural communities and lease payments to rural landowners.  

This record makes the federal pause particularly consequential. The four projects currently stalled represent a continuation of this beneficial history. Instead, the federal government is now standing in the way of projects that Minnesota communities have already said they want to build.

A Pattern of Obstruction

The current pause in onshore wind must be understood as the latest move in a sustained effort by the Trump administration to prevent wind energy development. The president has been candid about this goal. In January 2026, he stated: “My goal is to not let any windmill be built. They’re losers.” 

On the first day of his second term, President Trump signed an executive order halting all federal permitting for wind energy projects across the country. From there, the administration moved to freeze construction on major offshore wind projects along the East Coast, including paying over $2 billion in taxpayer dollars to get companies to walk away from existing plans. In multiple rulings, federal courts have found that the administration did not provided adequate justification for its actions, and construction on several projects has been allowed to resume.

Having lost repeatedly in court, the administration appears to have adopted a new tactic for onshore projects: stopping the Pentagon’s national security review process. That process, which evaluates whether turbines could interfere with military radar or flight paths, has historically been routine. Where genuine concerns arose, they were resolved through standard negotiations, often by adjusting turbine layouts or adding mitigation measures.

Starting in late 2025 and accelerating in early 2026, the Pentagon began going silent on pending applications and ultimately stopped moving any applications through the approval process. According to Jason Grumet, CEO of the American Clean Power Association, onshore wind projects are now subject to a “de facto moratorium.” 

The result is more than 250 stalled projects nationwide, representing 30 gigawatts of potential generating capacity. As detailed below, four of those projects will directly impact Minnesota.

The Economic Impact on Minnesota

What does the federal pause cost Minnesota? This section estimates the economic impact across four dimensions: construction employment, wages and benefits, tax revenue, and broader economic activity in local communities. The math and sources underlying these estimates is explained in the methodology section at the end of this brief.

Jobs

These four projects, when constructed, are expected to require a combined 1,200 construction jobs. That figure comes directly from developer estimates associated with these projects. Notably, wind energy construction requires skilled trades work, including laborers, ironworkers, millwrights, operating engineers, and electricians, all working together to create functional wind farms.

Beyond direct construction jobs, additional indirect employment is created throughout the supply chain that provides the materials to construct the wind farm. Induced jobs are also generated when these workers spend their wages in local communities. According to an analysis by the American Clean Power Association, when indirect and induced jobs are included, the current pause puts a total of 4,400 jobs at risk. 

Wages and Benefits

Under Minnesota law, large wind energy projects are subject to the state’s prevailing wage requirements, meaning workers on these projects must be paid the wage and fringe benefit rates established by the Minnesota Department of Labor and Industry for the relevant region and trade. Averaging across prevailing wage rates for common occupations in wind construction and assuming a 1,500-hour construction season, the total projected payroll including fringe benefits for all four projects is approximately $120 million. 

Tax Revenue

When workers earn wages, governments collect revenue. Applying 2026 effective tax rates, the 1,200 construction jobs would generate an estimated $28.1 million in tax revenue. At the federal level, income and payroll taxes account for $17 million. At the state level, Minnesota income taxes, Unemployment Insurance contributions, and Paid Family and Medical Leave premiums would add another $11 million.

It is worth noting that this estimate only covers taxes on construction worker earnings. It does not include production taxes on the energy generated, sales taxes on materials purchased for construction, or taxes collected on wages paid for indirect and induced jobs. The $28 million figure is therefore a very conservative estimate of at-risk tax revenue.

Economic Impact

Workers don’t just earn wages; they also spend them. When a construction worker buys groceries, pays rent, or hires a babysitter, that spending supports jobs and incomes in the local economy. This activity creates a multiplier effect, which translates wages into broader economic output.

Applying an industry standard multiplier to the combined wages, benefits, and spending of the 1,200 workers and $120 million payroll produces an estimated total economic impact of $168 million in local communities across the four project areas, just during the construction phase of the project.

Total Investment

The $168 million in worker-driven economic activity is itself only a portion of the total capital at stake. According to the American Clean Power Association, Minnesota’s four affected projects represent approximately $1.6 billion in total capital investment now at risk. That figure encompasses the full cost of constructing each project, much of which would flow to contractors, suppliers, and service providers operating in and around the project communities. Capital investment of this scale represents a significant loss of economic activity that extends beyond construction workers’ paychecks.

Additional Costs

The numbers above capture the direct economic impact of delayed construction, but they do not capture all the costs imposed by this pause. Developers of these projects continue to incur costs even while construction is frozen, such as paying ongoing land leases. Every month of delay increases the cost of a project that is generating no revenue. Extended pauses threaten the economic viability of projects that may have already taken years to permit and finance.

Utilities and ratepayers are harmed as well. Minnesota’s electric utilities have made resource planning commitments based on expected project completion timelines. When those timelines slip, utilities must find replacement capacity to meet their reliability obligations and renewable energy requirements. Ultimately, those costs are borne by ratepayers. Put simply, all Minnesotans benefit when lower-cost wind energy comes online. When it does not, the result is a less efficient electricity system and higher bills.

Clean Energy Benefits

In addition to economic impact, these four projects represent a significant investment in Minnesota’s clean energy future. Together, they would generate 1,119 megawatts of wind energy capacity. Using the standard benchmark that 1,000 megawatts of wind energy can power approximately 300,000 homes, these projects would collectively supply enough electricity for more than 335,000 Minnesota households.

Wind energy also displaces fossil fuel generation, reducing carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. Based on standard conversion factors for wind generation and grid emissions, the four projects would offset approximately 3 million metric tons of CO2 annually. To translate that environmental benefit into economic terms, we can look at the social cost of carbon, which represents the estimated cost to society of each additional metric ton of CO2 emitted. Using the 2026 figure from the Cost of Carbon Calculator ($256 per metric ton), the annual carbon offset from these four projects represents approximately $657 million in social savings. 

Conclusion

The federal pause in onshore wind development is imposing real and measurable costs on Minnesota. Four projects that are ready to move forward are now frozen indefinitely, with little explanation and no timeline for resolution.

The estimated price tag is significant: 1,200 jobs, $120 million in wages and benefits, at least $28 million in tax revenue, $168 million in total economic activity, and $1.6 billion in investment. More than 335,000 homes also stand to lose access to the clean energy that these projects would produce, and $657 million in annual social savings from reduced carbon emissions could remain unrealized.

In addition to this current harm, the impact on Minnesota’s future may be even greater. Utility plans in the state anticipate the construction of at least 4,800 MW of wind energy by 2030, including 3,300 MW from Xcel Energy, 1,100 MW from Great River Energy, and 400 MW from Minnesota Power. Representing four times the capacity of the current projects being halted, this future construction is now in jeopardy, along with the thousands of jobs and millions of dollars in wages it would generate. And with electricity demand now growing, any pause on wind energy will become even more detrimental.

Minnesota has built one of the strongest wind energy economies in the country. It did so through years of bipartisan investment in infrastructure, permitting, and workforce development. The federal government is now actively undermining that investment through a permitting process that has been converted from a routine review into an indefinite roadblock. For the state’s economy, local communities, and future, it is time to get these projects unfrozen and allow Minnesotans to get back to work.

Methodology

This brief estimates the economic impact of pausing four wind energy projects that are directly connected to Minnesota’s economy. The estimates are based on publicly available data from developer filings, prevailing wage schedules, and established economic modeling tools. Key assumptions and sources are described below.

Construction Employment

Job estimates are drawn from project documentation submitted by each developer to Public Utilities Commissions. The combined estimate of 1,200 construction jobs reflects the developers’ own projections for each project.

Prevailing Wages and Benefits

Wage rates are based on Minnesota Department of Labor and Industry prevailing wage schedules for 2026, applied to the corresponding project location and occupation. Four occupational categories were applied (laborers, millwrights and ironworkers, operators, and electricians), reflecting the typical workforce composition in large wind energy construction. Wage rates and fringe benefit rates were averaged across these four categories for each project. Gross pay per worker is calculated assuming a 1,500-hour construction season. Total payroll figures include both wages and fringe benefits (current and deferred), as these represent the full compensation cost and the basis for worker spending and tax calculations.

Tax Revenue

Tax estimates apply 2026 effective tax rates to gross wages (excluding fringe benefits, which are not subject to income and payroll taxes in the same way). Federal estimates include federal income tax (at effective rates based on projected income levels) and FICA contributions (7.65%). State estimates for Minnesota projects include state income tax and contributions to Unemployment Insurance and Paid Family and Medical Leave. These estimates cover only taxes on construction worker earnings and do not include production taxes, property taxes, or sales taxes, which would increase the total tax impact.

Economic Multiplier

The economic impact estimate applies a labor income multiplier of 1.73, derived from Nissen and Zhang’s 2006 study of construction employment and local spending. This multiplier measures how wage income circulates through the local economy, generating additional economic activity beyond the initial paycheck. 

The 1.73 figure is consistent with the range found in comparable analyses using IMPLAN and other BEA RIMS II applications, which typically fall between 1.5 and 1.8 for construction employment. This multiplier is applied to the combined wages and fringe benefits of all 1,200 workers, assuming a 100 percent local workforce. This assumption produces an upper-bound estimate. In practice, some share of workers on large construction projects may be non-local, which would reduce the local economic impact.

Carbon Offset and Social Cost of Carbon

Carbon offset estimates are based on the generating capacity of each project. The combined annual offset of approximately 3 million metric tons of CO2 reflects wind generation displacing fossil fuel-based electricity. The social cost of carbon is taken from the Cost of Carbon Calculator, which applies a figure of $256 per metric ton for 2026. This figure reflects the estimated economic cost to society of one additional metric ton of CO2 in the atmosphere, including impacts on agriculture, human health, and property values. Applying this rate to the estimated 3 million metric ton annual offset produces the $657 million annual social savings figure.

MW-to-Home Power Conversion

The estimate that 1,000 MW of wind energy powers approximately 300,000 homes is an industry benchmark based on average U.S. household electricity consumption. Applied to the combined 1,119 MW capacity of the four projects, this benchmark produces an estimate of approximately 335,000 Minnesota households.